The numbers first
Democrats have the edge in the House, where polls favor them to retake control, while the Senate is still too close to call. The Senate is where it gets tight. The last New York Times/Siena polls show Democrats ahead in seven competitive races, but five of those leads sit inside the margin of error. That’s a polite way of saying nobody should be confident.
The mood is not great for the president’s party either. An NBC poll out Sunday found 60 percent of registered voters disapprove of Trump, and many are worried about prices climbing during the war with Iran.
Trump’s last stretch
The president spent the weekend in states he already won, trying to keep them red. He was in Salina, Kansas, and Dubuque, Iowa, where Republicans are facing serious challenges. His message hasn’t changed: “We’re going to win.” Monday’s plan was a speech at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.
There’s a quieter story behind the rallies, though. Reuters reports the White House is drawing up executive actions, such as new tariffs and tighter visa rules, in case Republicans lose Congress. A spokeswoman dismissed talk of losses. Still, you don’t usually write a backup plan unless you’re worried.
The Democrats’ push
Democrats are leaning on turnout and the cost of living. Barack Obama brought back “Don’t boo, vote” and asked people to drag friends and family to the polls. Texas Senate hopeful James Talarico and Kansas hopeful Adam Hamilton were making last appeals, and Sen. Raphael Warnock described himself as “nauseously optimistic.” That’s about as honest as campaign talk gets.
But they’ve got a mess of their own in Michigan. Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers after falling out with Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed. In a race this close, a split like that matters.
Why people care so much
If Democrats win the House, they could block Trump’s bills and launch investigations. A Senate win would let them stop judicial nominees, including a Supreme Court pick. That’s real leverage over the next two years.
Plenty of people have already voted
More than 54 million ballots were in as of Sunday, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab. If you’re not one of them, look up your polling place and ID requirements tonight.