Introduction
As 2025 approaches, the geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia is becoming increasingly volatile, with tensions simmering between two countries that share a complex history: Thailand and Cambodia. While both nations have historically maintained cordial relations, recent developments have sparked fears of a potential military conflict. To understand why Thailand and Cambodia might be heading toward a war, it is essential to explore their military capabilities, the evolving geopolitical dynamics, and the historical roots of their tensions.
In this article, we will assess the military power of both nations, examine the reasons behind the escalating conflict, and attempt to predict how long such a war could potentially last if it were to erupt.
A Brief History of Tensions
Before delving into the military capabilities of Thailand and Cambodia, it is important to understand the historical context that has shaped their relationship. The roots of their rivalry can be traced back to the Preah Vihear Temple dispute, a site of ancient significance located along their shared border. In 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in favor of Cambodia, granting them sovereignty over the temple. However, Thailand has disputed the ruling, citing historical and territorial claims.
Over the years, this dispute has led to several clashes, with both countries accusing each other of encroachment and aggression. In 2008, when the temple was granted UNESCO World Heritage status, tensions escalated once again, leading to border skirmishes. These historical flashpoints have never fully been resolved, and although the situation has cooled over time, the underlying issues remain.
Thailand’s Military Power in 2025
As of 2025, Thailand maintains one of the most formidable military forces in Southeast Asia, and its military might is a significant factor in any potential conflict with Cambodia. Thailand’s military is structured into three main branches: the Royal Thai Army (RTA), the Royal Thai Navy (RTN), and the Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF). The Royal Thai Army, in particular, has been a pillar of strength and power for the nation.
Royal Thai Army
The Royal Thai Army is the largest of the three branches and is heavily equipped with advanced weaponry, including modern tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery systems. The Thai military has invested heavily in upgrading its arsenal in recent years, often turning to both domestic and international suppliers for military equipment. Thailand’s tank fleet includes the French AMX-13 and the German Leopard 2A4, both of which are known for their advanced armor and firepower. Additionally, the Thai Army operates a wide range of artillery, such as the American-made M109 self-propelled howitzers.
The Royal Thai Army also boasts a large and highly trained infantry force, with extensive experience in counterinsurgency operations due to the country’s long-standing issues with insurgent groups in the southern provinces.
Royal Thai Navy
Thailand’s naval power is another significant asset, especially in terms of maintaining control over the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. The Royal Thai Navy operates several frigates, submarines, and fast attack craft, which allow it to project power over maritime borders. Thailand’s strategic position on the South China Sea, a vital global shipping route, also makes its navy an important player in the region’s security dynamics.
Royal Thai Air Force
The Royal Thai Air Force (RTAF) is the backbone of Thailand’s air superiority, with a mix of fighter jets, transport aircraft, and advanced reconnaissance planes. Thailand’s fleet includes American-made F-16 Fighting Falcons, which are capable of air-to-air and air-to-ground combat, making them formidable in both offensive and defensive operations. The air force also has access to modern surveillance and radar systems that enable it to maintain situational awareness over both land and sea.
Cambodia’s Military Power in 2025
Cambodia, while not as powerful as Thailand in terms of raw military strength, has made significant strides in modernizing its armed forces over the past few years. The Cambodian military consists of the Royal Cambodian Army (RCA), the Royal Cambodian Navy (RCN), and the Royal Cambodian Air Force (RCAF). Though Cambodia’s military capabilities are dwarfed by Thailand’s, its geographic position and the support it has received from regional allies may play a crucial role in any conflict scenario.
Royal Cambodian Army
The Royal Cambodian Army is the largest branch of the Cambodian military, and its forces have been growing steadily in terms of manpower and equipment. Cambodia relies heavily on infantry forces, which are supported by light and medium artillery systems. Over the last decade, Cambodia has also made significant purchases of armored vehicles and main battle tanks, such as the Chinese-made Type 59 and Type 85 tanks. Though these tanks are not as advanced as Thailand’s Leopard 2A4s, they provide Cambodia with some level of defense against incursions.
One of Cambodia’s key military strengths lies in its strategic use of irregular forces, with several units specializing in jungle warfare and asymmetric tactics, something that could pose a significant challenge to an invading force.
Royal Cambodian Navy
Cambodia’s navy is far smaller than Thailand’s, but it has nonetheless developed a modest force for securing its territorial waters in the Gulf of Thailand. The Cambodian Navy has received substantial assistance from China, particularly in the form of smaller warships, patrol boats, and amphibious assault craft. This naval presence is primarily focused on safeguarding the country’s coastline and enhancing its role in regional security.
Royal Cambodian Air Force
Cambodia’s air force is relatively underdeveloped compared to Thailand’s, though the country has made strides in bolstering its air defense capabilities. The Cambodian Air Force operates a mix of Soviet-era MiG-21 fighters and more modern Chinese-made aircraft. While these assets may not be on par with the Royal Thai Air Force’s advanced F-16s, they nonetheless provide a deterrent against any aerial incursions.
Why Are Thailand and Cambodia on the Brink of War?
Several factors are driving the growing tensions between Thailand and Cambodia in 2025. While both countries have historically been cautious about open conflict, the current geopolitical climate is creating an environment where war is becoming increasingly likely.
1. Border Disputes and Territorial Claims
The long-standing dispute over the Preah Vihear Temple remains one of the most contentious issues between Thailand and Cambodia. Despite international rulings, both sides continue to claim ownership of the land surrounding the temple. In recent years, Cambodia has built infrastructure in the disputed area, which Thailand perceives as an encroachment on its territory. The perception of aggression and territorial theft has stoked nationalist sentiments on both sides, with each nation’s leadership unwilling to back down.
2. Regional Rivalries and Influence
In 2025, the broader regional power dynamics are shifting. Both Thailand and Cambodia are increasingly influenced by global superpowers such as China and the United States. Cambodia, for example, has increasingly aligned itself with China, accepting military aid, investments, and infrastructure projects. Thailand, on the other hand, has been cautious about its relationships with global powers, often balancing its military and economic ties with both the U.S. and China.
This rivalry for regional influence is creating a volatile situation where Cambodia may feel the need to assert itself more aggressively in its relationship with Thailand, especially with Chinese backing. Conversely, Thailand may see Cambodia’s growing ties with China as a threat to its own security.
3. Nationalism and Domestic Pressures
Both Thailand and Cambodia are grappling with internal political instability and domestic pressures. In Thailand, the military has played a dominant role in politics for years, and an external conflict could rally the population behind the government, diverting attention from internal issues. Similarly, in Cambodia, the ruling government under Prime Minister Hun Sen has faced criticism for its authoritarian policies, and a war with Thailand could serve to unite the country under a common cause, distracting from domestic unrest.
How Long Could a War Last?
If a conflict were to break out between Thailand and Cambodia in 2025, the duration of the war would depend on several key factors, including the level of international intervention, the efficiency of each nation’s military, and the willingness of both governments to escalate the conflict.
Given the disparity in military power, Thailand would likely achieve a quick victory in terms of conventional warfare, especially in a land-based conflict. However, Cambodia’s strategic use of irregular forces and the potential for protracted guerrilla warfare could drag the war on for months, if not longer.
International actors such as the United States, China, and ASEAN would play critical roles in either de-escalating the conflict or prolonging it. ASEAN’s principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of member states would likely result in a delay in diplomatic intervention, further extending the conflict.
Conclusion
The potential for war between Thailand and Cambodia in 2025 is a real and growing threat. The military balance, while in favor of Thailand, does not guarantee a swift resolution to any conflict, especially given the historical, political, and regional factors at play. As both nations grapple with their internal issues and compete for regional influence, it is clear that the tensions between them are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon. However, the involvement of international powers and the complexity of asymmetric warfare may lead to a drawn-out, costly conflict, should the worst come to pass.
The hope, of course, is that diplomacy and regional cooperation will prevail, but in the world of international politics, nothing is certain. The situation in Southeast Asia remains one to watch closely as the geopolitical chess game of 2025 unfolds.